Post Forecast Parameters

Guidance
1

Hey everyone!

I have a question that may be related to my lack of knowledge of the way forecasting works for the Oil industry. So, please, bear with me

We have some parameters provided by a few Appraisal firms and we need to push them to a project. We have: b Factor, DI Eff Sec, and qStart.

I’m using the endpoint post-projects-forecast-segment-parameters to create a segment of type arps_modified. I’m providing the values I have but I’m getting an error related to missing fields.

This is my request-body

[
    {
        "segmentType": "arps_modified",
        "startDate": "2023-01-01",
        "qStart": 88,
        "diEffSec": 0.11,
        "b": 1
    }
]

One of the errors I’m getting is:

        {
            "name": "RequestStructureError",
            "message": "Missing required segment parameter(s): endDate,qEnd,targetDSwEffSec for the arps_modified segment",
            "location": "[0]"
        },

I’m not sure how I can get those values. Is it something I can get by applying some formula to the data I have already?

For context: We are working to automate a few processes inside our company on the ComboCurve usage. Right now our consultants are required to manually create a forecast, run it, download the parameters, fill the columns with new values, and upload it.

Thanks in advance.

2

Hi @willjosefi,
After a discussion with the forecast team, we don’t think it is possible given only those three parameters.

  • qStart defines the starting rate
  • Di-eff-sec is kind of like the slope at the start of the curve
  • b is used to help define the “trajectory” or “curvature” of the segment

At the very least, we’d need a bit more info to get end Date, q End, and D Sw-Eff-Sec.

They can be obtained using some combination of at least 2 of the following:

  • Start date
  • end date
  • Termination condition (eur, well life, etc)

Also, since you’re using modified arps, we’d also probably need the desired terminal decline to get t_switch.

When your consultants manually create forecasts are they doing it in the UI using this?

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If so then they should have the required parameters as the manual editing screen requires the same parameters as the API.

3

I’m sorry. Along with the 3 fields I mentioned, I have startDate and endDate.

if I provide those other two fields, Is there a way to not provide the qEnd and targetDSwEffSec?
If not, can you help me to identify those numbers?

4

If you go into a forecast in ComboCurve at the top of the screen you will see a tab called “Editing”

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In this tab, you will see an option to manually input your forecast parameters.

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If you look at parameters in this section you will notice a little greyed-out calculator next to a few of them depending on the segment type that is selected.

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This means that ComboCurve calculated that field for you. I have a Modified Arps segment in the screenshot since you are using that in your payload. The only fields that are calculated on the front end are endDate, qStart, qEnd, and diEffSec but in order to do so you would need to provide the other parameters that aren’t greyed out on the screen.

For example: If you wanted to calculate the qEnd you would need the Start Date, End Date, q Start, Di Eff-Sec, b, and D Sw-Eff-Sec parameters.

Also, it may not be clear here but D Sw-Eff-Sec is targetDSwEffSec in the API.

The API uses something similar to what you see here, however, the API will not do this calculation for you. It requires that you input all of the parameters for a given segment type.

Can you give me some insight into how your consultants are manually creating forecasts in ComboCurve? Are they using this manual edit mode?

5

Firstly, thanks for your attention to this @HGantz !

About the way our Consultants work. They follow these steps:

  • create the forecast
  • hit the button “Run Forecast”
  • hit “Run” in the “Forecast Settings” modal
  • wait to finish the forecast generation
  • Export the “Forecast Parameters CSV”
    • This CSV already has End Date, qEnd, and a few others
  • They edit the CSV providing four columns (q Start, Di Eff-Sec, b, and Realized D Sw-Eff-Sec)
  • Upload the CSV again

My idea was to provide the same 4 fields to the API.

6

Of course! I’d love to see you get your workflows automated.

My idea was to provide the same 4 fields to the API.

  1. What part of their (consultant’s) process are you trying to automate? Is it the second to last step where they edit the CSV providing four columns? Or are you trying to automate a different process? If it is a different process can you explain to me what it is and the desired outcome?

  2. Where are you getting the parameters you are using? Are they coming from the exported CSV or somewhere else? If it is somewhere else can you explain where?